Analysis of Trends in Extreme Rainfall Indices (R20mm, RX1day, PRCPTOT, and CDD) Using the Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope Estimators in the Province of Bali

OFANA WIBOWO; Yolanda Septriwana Rumahorbo; Glory Ravaella Lumbantobing; ⁠Edi Ferdiana Rumbrapuk; Ferdian Adhy Prasetya; Munawar

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Abstract

Background: Climate change has affected rainfall patterns, particularly extreme rainfall events. As a region with high levels of tourism and socio-economic activity, the province of Bali is vulnerable to these changes. However, studies on trends in extreme rainfall in the Bali region remain limited.
Aims: This study aims to determine the trends and magnitude of changes in extreme rainfall indices (R20mm, RX1day, PRCPTOT, and CDD) in the Province of Bali during the period 1994–2023.
Methods: The data used consists of daily rainfall records from 17 BMKG stations, with a data completeness rate exceeding 90%. Extreme rainfall indices were calculated using the ETCCDI method. Trend analysis was conducted using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s Slope estimator. Additionally, monthly trend analysis was performed as a follow-up.
Result: The results indicate an increase in intensity-based extreme rainfall indices (RX1day, R20mm, and PRCPTOT), whilst the CDD index shows a decreasing trend. Several stations showed a significant upward trend, particularly in the PRCPTOT and RX1day indices. Monthly analysis also indicated increased rainfall in certain months, including the period from May to September.
Conclusion: These results highlight the importance of climate adaptation strategies and the mitigation of hydrometeorological disasters, particularly in the Bali region.
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How to Cite

WIBOWO, O., Yolanda Septriwana Rumahorbo, Glory Ravaella Lumbantobing, ⁠Edi Ferdiana Rumbrapuk, Ferdian Adhy Prasetya, & Munawar. (2026). Analysis of Trends in Extreme Rainfall Indices (R20mm, RX1day, PRCPTOT, and CDD) Using the Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope Estimators in the Province of Bali . Journal of Earth and Planetary System Science, 1(1), 19–30. Retrieved from https://journal.gomit.id/jepss/article/view/104

Research Articles | Vol. 1 Issue 1 (2026) | Published in Jul 20, 2026

Analysis of Trends in Extreme Rainfall Indices (R20mm, RX1day, PRCPTOT, and CDD) Using the Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope Estimators in the Province of Bali

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References

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